Atlantic Council has issued a report on suggested actions, which Poland and NATO should take in case of military confrontation with Russia. In this article we will make brief analysis of this report regarding cybersecurity and its possible implications to the industry.
The report is called “Arming for Deterrence. How Poland and NATO Should Counter a Resurgent Russia” and should be considered as recommendations in case of military conflict.
The report is aimed to meet potential security threats coming from Russia and suggests a list of countermeasures.
“… the tools at the regime’s disposal are well-integrated, spanning the military, diplomacy, intelligence, propaganda, civilian emergencies management, military, cyber, and economic realms. This provides Moscow with great strategic flexibility and agility, as well as the ability to act and achieve effects across multiple domains.
Russia’s use of this wide range of instruments in its recent conflicts has generated much discussion within NATO concerning the numerous implications, not least on how best to deter future aggression. “Hybrid warfare” epitomizes Russia’s approach in the West. Russia would likely not dare to attack a NATO member by means of a direct and overt act of military aggression but would rather choose an indirect approach as described by its Chief of the General Staff,1 or “hybrid warfare” tactics, to challenge the Alliance and its collective defense guarantees”, - says the report.
According to this report, Poland is the country, which should start offensive actions against Russia in case of threat to NATO members. The report suggests, Poland should make clear declarations of possible political and military actions and be ready to use them promptly. One of the suggested declarations explains as well actions in cyberspace:
“Poland should announce that it reserves the right to deploy offensive cyber operations (and not necessarily in response just to cyber attacks). The authorities could also suggest potential targets, which could include the Moscow metro, the St. Petersburg power network, and Russian state-run media outlets such as RT.”
It has been also suggested, that Poland should contract militaries or private companies to develop necessary software to gain strategic cyber capability, both offensive and defensive, and to train military cyber troops. It is also up to Poland to be able to use social media and other channels to fight Russian propaganda campaigns. “Given the IT skills of Poland’s population, plus its large number (more than one million) of Russian-speaking immigrants from Ukraine and elsewhere, both goals are achievable in a relatively short period”.
Recommendations contained in the report are direct call to cybersecurity industry. A lot of European IT security companies are able to provide offensive tools to meet cybersecurity needs. The HackingTeam is not the only company providing this kind of services. The exploit market should become very popular and we should see more zero-day vulnerabilities in the closes future, as many EU countries would like to invest into cyber warfare.
The report can be downloaded here.
